Monday, 6 May 2013

What Makes A Great Scotch Whisky?


One of the enduring images, legends -- or perhaps myths-- surrounding Scotch whisky, especially single malt whiskies, is the mystique of location. Whisky connoisseurs pride themselves on their collection of whiskies from beautiful and obscure distilleries in glens of the highlands, the  lowlands, the wind-swept islands and other regions of Scotland.

The source of the water – streams from pristine hillsides or through peat bogs – the very air or the unique barley and malt are all supposed to create distinctions that marketers love to talk about. Make no mistake! Distinctions among the wide variety of single malt whiskies do in fact exist. But whether they stem from a distillery’s precise location, what French wine makes refer to as terroir,  is another matter altogether.

To study this question more closely I joined a friend recently to visit distilleries on the island of Islay just off the west coast of Scotland. Despite the logistics problems of producing anything on an island, Islay is home to eight distilleries that together account for a good portion of Scotch whisky exports. These distilleries include well known names like Laphroaig, LagavulinBowmore, and some like Bruichladdich that have been rejuvenated in the last decade.

The Bruichladdich distillery in Port Charlotte on Islay

Islay, about the size of Martha’s Vineyard in the United States, is wind-swept, filled with rich peat bogs and often buffeted by storms rolling across the North Atlantic. Jim McEwan, an Islay native and production manager of Bruichladdich, swears by the importance of location in the taste of a malt whisky.



We learned that the vast majority of barley used in making Scotch whisky comes, in fact, from England. Very few distilleries even make their own malt. Most buy the malt that has been prepared to their specifications. For example, some distilleries prefer using malt with a heavy peat flavour while others use malt that is only lightly flavoured.

Whatever the pluses or minuses of the argument about location influencing flavour, there is no doubt whatsoever that the very nature of the distilling process, from the fermentation to the bottling, varies from place to place and goes a long way to explain each whisky’s distinctive taste. Fermentation times, shape of the stills ,amount put into the stills, make-up of the condensers, preferences when to extract the spirit, alcoholic strength of the spirit that goes into the casks, and then the all-important character of the casks themselves play major roles in determining the final taste of a whisky. Many types of wood can be used, but the distilleries we visited seemed to favour oak that had previously been filled with American bourbon or Spanish sherry.

 
The all-important stills
 While bourbon manufacturers have to dispense with their casks after a year or two Scotch whisky manufacturers can use those same casks for 30 or even 40 years. These casks are usually filled at 63.5% alcohol (Bruichladdich fills at a higher percentage), and often stored for 10 or more years before being put into bottles at an alcoholic percentage of 40% - 46%. Many distillers will keep the spirit initially in a bourbon cask and then finish it with several months in a sherry cask.

Most of the whisky produced on scenic Islay is shipped off to some distinctly less scenic warehouses in central Scotland to be aged and ultimately bottled. Bruichladdich is almost unique on storing and bottling on Islay. Does it make a difference to the final taste? That question can stir up vigorous debate, and the answer is best left to the palate of the consumer.

Whisky isn't the only thing produced on Islay
What has been proven beyond doubt is that Scotch whisky production (blended and single malt) can be a very good business. Even in these tight economic times the value of Scotch whisky exports increased to £4.3 billion in 2012, up 87% over the last 10 years, according to the Scotch Whisky Association. The top market for all this whiskey was the United States, which accounted for £758 million of the exports. Exports of single malt whisky in 2013 increased to £778 million, up 190% in the last decade. France is by far the largest consumer of blended whisky, while the United States is the largest consumer of single malt.

The demand for premium whisky is nicely illustrated by Bruichladdich. A group of investors bought this decommissioned Islay distillery in 2001 for £7 million. They kept the original, ancient equipment – indeed, made a virtue of it -- persuaded Jim McEwan to join them from the Bowmore  distillery across Loch Indaal, and added a line of gin using many herbs local to Islay. They were so successful that in 2012 they were able to sell Bruichladdich to Remy Cointreau for an eye-popping £58 million.

The large global drinks companies that dominate production (Diageo alone owns 28 distilleries) have worked hard to broaden the customer base and spread the appeal of Scotch whisky around the world. The numbers alone would indicate a success that their counterparts in the French wine industry can only envy.

Saturday, 13 April 2013

Time For Change On Cyprus? Maybe, Just Maybe.


Few places better than the island of Cyprus demonstrate the futility, the touchingly naïve earnestness, embodied in the English word ‘should’.  Given the climate, resources, relatively well educated population and rich history the Eastern Mediterranean island should be a shining example of harmony and prosperity. It isn’t.

In addition to the recent, largely self-inflicted, financial collapse the island suffers from a long-standing division between the 800,000 Greek Cypriots in the southern part of the island and the roughly 300,000 Turks who live in the politically and economically isolated northern part of the island. About half of the Turkish population is native Turkish Cypriots while the others are immigrants from Anatolia.

This island 'should' be a paradise
 The Greek part of Cyprus is the internationally recognized and European Union member Republic of Cyprus. The self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is recognized only by Turkey. It survives largely on casinos, tourism and about $600 million in annual subsidies from Turkey. Until recently the Republic of Cyprus enjoyed a much higher income than its northern counterpart. With the collapse of the Cypriot banking bubble this difference has narrowed sharply.

Reasonable people might think that this is the perfect time for the two groups on the island to overcome their past differences, re-unite and build a prosperous island that begins to fulfil its potential. Unfortunately, as is often the case in this part of the world, such people are simultaneously right and wrong. They are right to believe that a unified island would be much stronger than a divided island. They are wrong to think this is going to happen any time soon. Cyprus is very close to the Middle East, and in that part of the world the mere fact that such a move would make sense is absolutely no guarantee that it will happen.

Why not? How much time do you have? The tangled history of Cyprus involves centuries of invasion, co-habitation, the sometimes malevolent influence of religion, colonization, communal strife and, above all, a deeply ingrained sense of grievance and victimhood.

However, there are changes in the wind that, according to one astute observer, could change the narrative, the frozen paradigm of the divided island. Metin Munir, a native of Cyprus and formerly a prominent columnist with the Turkish daily newspaper Milliyet, has long been sceptical of the real chances of reunification. Now, however, there are changes that might, just might, in time help bring the island together.

“The economic difference between the two sides is diminishing. In addition, Turkey  is bringing water to the island from the mainland and will soon be bringing electricity for much less than it costs to generate it on the island. The rapprochement between Turkey and Israel also has the potential to change the situation. If Israel ships its gas through Turkey via a pipeline there could be a great deal of pressure on Cyprus to do the same for its offshore gas, or at least sell its gas to Israel who in turn would use the pipeline to Turkey. The alternative is to build a very expensive LNG plant on Cyprus. It is difficult to see right now who would spend the $7 - $8 billion for such a plant when a much cheaper pipeline alternative (Turkey is only 40 miles away) is available.

Turkey is so close and so far away
“Nothing is going to happen immediately, but the potential for change is emerging. For one thing there is a lot of sympathy on this side of the island for what the Greeks are going through right now. One major obstacle is what the Greeks perceive as Turkey’s belligerent approach to Cyprus. Turkey has to change its tune, and then we will see what happens.”

He has a point. No one can accuse Turkish foreign policy of being subtle. Why use a scalpel when a sledge hammer will do? There is a certain aggressive, chip-on-the-shoulder attitude in the comments of many Turkish politicians that make it difficult to create a win-win rather than an I-win-you-lose situation. A recent example is Turkey’s heavy-handed threats against the Cypriot development of the offshore natural gas deposits without including the Turkish part of the islands.

To be fair to Turkey, the internal timing for any concessions on Cyprus couldn’t be worse. The Turkish government is already in tense negotiations with the Kurds to end decades of conflict. This is prompting outrage on the part of Turkish nationalists who see any move to accommodate the Kurds as a betrayal of the very concept of a Turkish nation. Any concessions on Cyprus would send this outrage off the charts and stir up the old cries of ‘selling out’ their brothers on the island.

The best chance for a settlement on the island was in 2004 when negotiations under the auspices of U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan produced a plan that was overwhelming approved by the Turkish population on Cyprus. The Greek Cypriots, however, already promised a place in the European Union and prompted by the Archbishop of Cyprus who called the plan ‘the work of the devil’, rejected the plan.

Despite this history, calls for a radical re-think are growing. Former Greek Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis recently expressed her support for reconciliation on the island.

Will these discoveries prompt settlement or strife?

It is too early to tell if the faint signs of reconciliation and common sense will prevail over long-held and possibly no-longer-relevant grievances. But the world, and more particularly Cyprus, has changed dramatically in the last few decades. It may just be time to dust off those under-utilized negotiating skills



Tuesday, 26 March 2013

Cyprus Badly Misplayed Its Hand


Cyprus has just learned a very old lesson the very hard way – nations don’t have friends, they only have interests. Assuming protection for the last decade from its membership in the European Union, the Euro zone, and close ties to Russian oligarchs Cyprus tried to remake itself as a global financial service center and a significant regional political player. Whatever productive businesses it had were wound down in favor of a service-based economy. Cypriot politicians mistakenly thought their consistent support of Russian stances on issues like Kosovo and Syria would earn them Russian protection when times got hard.  Wrong.

Cyprus just learned a hard lesson
These delusions were brutally punctured when a remorseless European Union led by Germany forced a complete restructuring of the island’s unsustainable banking system in return for helping rescue the country’s battered finances. This restructuring will lead to failed businesses and large losses for many savers, including thousands of Russians who thought Cyprus was a safe place to stash their funds protected by the notoriously incurious Cypriot financial regulators. Essentially, the island’s economy is back to Square One.

Cypriots were ‘shocked, shocked’ that their fellow EU members would do this to them. They were even more shocked when the Russians, demonstrating a bit of real politick, showed they valued their relations with the EU more than their Cypriot ties and refused to help, leaving the island nation well and truly in the lurch.

This plea fell on deaf ears
The Cypriots badly misread their presumed support from the EU. The reality was that many EU countries deeply resented Cypriot membership in the first place and were increasingly annoyed at the lax financial regulation on the island. In 2004 Greece essentially threatened to veto the entire EU expansion project unless Cyprus was included. Greece and Cyprus won the short-term game, but lost longer term support. No one likes being blackmailed. The Germans in particular did not want to accept a country that was divided by the break-away Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north and the Republic of Cyprus in the south.

The Cypriots did not help their reputation when they overwhelming rejected a plan to unify the island just before they were admitted to the EU. Cyprus further overplayed its hand by consistently blocking any closer relations between the EU, NATO and Turkey. What began as a major victory for Hellenism in 2004 has sadly turned to dust as both Greece and Cyprus, largely through their own doing, are now little more than wards of the humourless northern Europeans.

In a twist that only the gods could arrange, Cyprus’s implosion has coincided with major strides forward by its arch-enemy Turkey. While Cypriots leaders were desperately shuttling between Nicosia, Brussels and Moscow seeking bail out money Turkey not only made a major breakthrough in the peace process with the Kurds but succeeded in amending its torn relations with Israel. At a stroke, the geopolitics of the Middle East changed. Turkey, whose economy is humming along quite nicely, re-established itself as a credible, powerful force in the ever-changing dynamics of the Middle East.


The implications of these developments for Cyprus are mixed at best. Israel now could be much more interested in shipping the gas from its offshore field to Turkey rather than Cyprus. Turkey has long protested that Cyprus should not develop its own gas fields without taking into consideration the Turkish population of the island. Now that Turkey is finally living up to its potential as a regional power more countries and major oil companies could be willing to consider the Turkish position before doing more work on the offshore Cyprus gas fields. Certainly countries like Germany and Russia have many more strategic interests in Turkey than they do in Cyprus. And they most likely would not like to jeopardize those interests for the sake of Cypriot gas.

Cyprus is in a tough neighborhood
There is at least one step Cypriot leaders could take that could restore their credibility and possibly lay the foundation for recovery. They could think the unthinkable and work out a deal to re-unify the island. After nearly 40 years of division following the Turkish military incursion this will by no means be easy. One of the more thankless jobs for any diplomat since 1974 has been to seek peace between the two sides of Cyprus. The best chance came in 2004 when a plan supported by former United Nations General Secretary Kofi Annan was overwhelmingly supported by the Turkish side and just as overwhelmingly rejected by Greek Cypriots after a vigorous ‘No’ campaign led by former president Tassos Papadopoulos.

Such reunification talks would undoubtedly be challenging. Much has changed over the last several years on the island and the two sides no longer have much in common. Cyprus also would be negotiating directly with Ankara rather than with just the Turkish Cypriots. Touchy issues include the presence of the Turkish military that by now has built up a substantial infrastructure on the island, restitution of Greek Cypriot property seized in 1974, the status of the thousands of immigrants from the Turkish mainland that have been settled on the island, and many, many others. But Turkey has reasons of its own for wanting a settlement. Currently it spends about $600 million a year to support the Turkish part of Cyprus, money it can ill afford to spend. It has been unable to get a single country to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, and its negotiations with the EU have been hindered by Cyprus for several years. Also, the Turkish military is in a much weaker position than it was in 2004. It is no longer in a position to block a settlement and pretty much does whatever Prime Minister Erdoğan says.

The economic and political benefits of a unified island just might push the parties toward the negotiating table. Now that the former Cypriot economic model is broken beyond repair the political leaders might be willing to re-think the unification issue. This would require leadership and statesmanship that so far have been in short supply. But in this case necessity might just the catalyst for welcome change.